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Christian Yelich has been one of the most underrated players in baseball the past several seasons. Last week, Birds All Day podcast cohost Drew Fairservice re-tweeted some over-under betting lines on individual home run totals for the coming baseball season. The model loves Chicago's chances again in the NL Central; the Cubs win it in 69 percent of simulations. The next closest team wins just 19.1 percent of the time. Virtually every major offensive contributor returns in 2018, giving Chicago a loaded lineup that includes six players who hit 20 or more home runs last season. The heart of the order -- 3B Kris Bryant, 1B Anthony Rizzo, C Wilson Contreras and LF Kyle Schwarber -- is as good as any in the league.
Giancarlo Stanton tops that list with 86 homers, and he'd likely be the first name out of more than a few people's mouths. We saw a similar progression from Mike Trout. His home run total dropped from 41 in 2015 to 29 in 2016 as he continued to refine his approach and then jumped back up last season in what would have been a career year if not for injury. He also showed more patience with his walk rate jumping from 10.7 to 14.3 percent. Part of the reason for the dip in over-the-fence production stems from his continued development as a better all-around hitter. Kris Bryant saw his home run total dip from 39 during his NL MVP season in 2016 to just 29 last year.
Giancarlo Stanton Adds To Legacy With All-Star Game MVP Award In Hometown
Bryant made a concerted effort to use the whole field more last season as his pull rate dropped (46.7 to 41.2 percent), and some of that has to do with how pitchers attacked him. However, it's hard to envision Ryan Rua, Drew Robinson and Carlos Tocci holding him off for the starting left field job for an extended amount of time. A fourth-round pick in 2015 out of JUCO powerhouse Yavapai College in Arizona, he's slugged 69 home runs in his first three professional seasons.
Bryant’s improved walk rate made up for his power shortcomings in terms of value, but there are couple of statistics that I believe he’ll improve on this year. We don't have a lot of data, but modeling these things always gives an interesting glimpse into the inner workings of things. All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphsunless otherwise noted. Yet there he is, just one behind Stanton with 85 homers since joining the Oakland Athletics.
Which Player Will Bounce Back In 2018?
We can also calculate the average difference between the projected win total and the actual win total for all 30 teams among the four groups. We’ll use the absolute values, treating negatives and positives the same, otherwise they’ll cancel each other out in the final calculation. Here are the initial projections for home runs. The players shown are those offered for over-under betting by Westgate Sports Book in Las Vegas.
Giancarlo Stanton has a lengthy injury history and Aaron Judge will likely experience at least some level of regression after his historically good rookie season. And all they did was go out and acquire reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton during the offseason, fresh off a monster 59-homer season with the Miami Marlins. With a better supporting cast and given his recent production, a 50-homer season is not unthinkable.
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That summer, he was runner-up to Yoenis Cespedes. Harper hasn’t competed since, but felt a lot of pressure to enter since this is his home ball park. He said he would only do it if he were elected to play in the All-Star Game. Some players don’t like taking part in the Derby because there’s a stigma that it messes with their swings for the second half of the season, or they just want a break. Harper was held out of Sunday’s lineup to, I guess, give him more rest for this. He had never failed to hit at least 24 homers in any season in which he played at least 130 games.
Harper will be the fan favorite, of course, but doesn’t really seem excited to participate. Baez is the kind of guy who will eat this atmosphere alive and has a great power swing. Bregman is a sneaky pick and should get by Schwarber in the first round. Hoskins also has the swagger to excel in this, but has a tough first round matchup with the NL Home Run leader.
MLB Home Run Total Over/Unders and Picks
Eight players compete in a single-elimination tournament to determine the winner. They are seeded one through eight based on the amount of home runs hit by Tuesday, July 10. For example, Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar is No. 1 by virtue of hitting 23 dingers during that span.
Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Schwarber will be receiving pitches from his personal batting-practice pitcher in Tampa, Florida, . That chemistry should help his cause. Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman should hold his own, but give the edge to Schwarber in bonus time after he hits a few long bombs. The first half of the Major League Baseball regular season has come to a close, which means that the first All-Star break to take place in Washington, D.C., since 1969 is rapidly approaching. Both of them could still hit 40 home runs, but expecting them to duplicate their 2017 totals might be wishful thinking.
Like most predictions or projections in sports, fans love them if they’re favorable toward their team and scoff at them if they’re not. We don’t expect anything different here, although it’s fun to see how the projections think teams who made major changes are going to do in the year ahead and how a few players in new homes will fare. Washington’s Bryce Harper is clearly the biggest attraction in this year’s edition. He’s also the only player in the field to ever compete in one .
I think whatever went down during the regular season will stay the same in 2018. The balls may be juiced, but I think the league was probably happy with the results. With a 44.2 percent flyball rate and a 46.5 percent hard-hit contact rate against right-handers, Los Angeles Dodgers infielder Max Muncy has the big edge over Chicago Cubs second baseman Javier Baez. Expect one of the game's biggest surprises this year to vault into the second round.
The solid black dot indicates the final totals. The battle of two power-hitting lefties should be a good one. Although Harper has the home crowd behind him, Muncy has been hitting the ball a little harder and a bit more in the air than him against righties this year. Look for Muncy to advance to the finals by a homer or two. Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman is an excellent hitter, but he's essentially playing on the road against Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper.
It also projects eight homers in about 48 games as a DH. Khris Davis of the Oakland A’s is the quintessential modern power hitter. He’s also very consistent. He’s hit exactly .247 in each of the past three seasons.
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